Algorithm Development for Predicting Fire Probability by the Quantitative Analysis Method
Keywords:
LIVING SAFETY, FIRE SAFETY, PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT, QUANTITATIVE METHOD, FIRE SCENARIOS, SENSITIVITY ANALYSISAbstract
The article presents an approach that allows to quantify the safety level for the life safety system design using probabilistic risk analysis. The resulting failure probability of the life safety system for the particular scenario ( ) provides a quantitative assessment of the life safety level. In addition, the investigated methodology takes into account the uncertainty of the input parameters and provides information on the sensitivity of the investigated model to various parameters. In this study, a quantitative assessment methodology for the multipurpose public building was applied.
Currently, it is possible to quantify the current rules and regulations using modern mathematical methods. The obtained results of the failure probability can subsequently be used as a quantitative characteristic for alternative structures of buildings and constructions.
The proposed method allows direct comparison of fire scenarios, which makes it possible to identify the most relevant scenarios, taking into account the probability of their occurrence. The sensitivity analysis identifies the most significant parameters, allowing the design engineer to select those that have the greatest impact on the safety level. This allows not only to improve the safety of buildings, but also to find more cost-effective solutions.
The analysis showed that for this particular problem the most relevant indicators are: the rate of the fire spread, the number of people in the building, the time before the evacuation. Thus, limiting the amount of flammable materials or the number of people in the room, as well as the introduction of advanced warning systems are the most effective measures in terms of the safety level in this study.
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